More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside US military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday.
Likewise, not all potential insiders are Orcas. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the soldier who prosecutors say made $400,000 betting on Maduro’s ouster, built his position more slowly and is therefore not among the 152 military Orcas identified.
ACDC says it has discovered dozens more previously unreported wallets While some of those 152 wallets have previously been flagged by other researchers and the media.
It comes as policymakers increase scrutiny of the booming industry following bets ahead of US military actions, including that of a US soldier charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal in January of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, which lawmakers have said could hurt national security. Orca traits may have other explanations, including pure luck, ACDC said. Still, those wallets are the most likely to be trading on military secrets, according to the report.
“Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. “It would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren’t monitoring these markets. A spokesperson for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is pushing for jurisdiction over prediction markets, did not comment on the findings.
The Department of Defence does not comment on intelligence‑related matters or the findings of third-party research, a spokesperson said. Profiting from confidential government information is generally illegal, but of greater concern is evidence that military Orca trades appear to attract copycat bets from deep-pocketed “Whales” and automated trading bots, ACDC said. It’s all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades,” ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said. Polymarket has said its public ledger allows for greater scrutiny. The regulator has said that it will strictly police misconduct in the space, and has brought charges in at least three cases so far.
