India is one of the world’s largest buyers of Russian crude. The sudden reversal raises a question: why has Trump softened his stance on Russia and the countries that buy its oil? India had a tariff of up to 100 per cent hanging over it. Then, days before it could have taken effect on 18 October, US President Donald Trump waived sanctions under the Russia sanctions law.
The move comes days after Trump announced a deal to import diesel from Russia, as he tries to ease domestic fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections. The answer may lie closer to home. Trump’s challenge goes beyond high diesel prices. US oil and petroleum product inventories have also fallen sharply. The waiver also comes as a major relief for Russia, whose oil sector has been under growing pressure.
Inventories stood at about 1.51 billion barrels on 9 October 2026, down from more than 2.11 billion barrels at their pandemic-era peak in 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration. The latest level is the lowest since 2003. Russia’s oil exports fell to 6.4 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level since 2018, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Refinery runs have dropped to a more than 20-year low after repeated Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure.
Trump recently said, “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. Chief Economist at Emkay Global, the waiver is also aimed at preventing another spike in oil prices, according to Madhavi Arora.
