Electoral politics is, unfortunately, largely a cost-benefit analysis for the contestants, especially in a state like Karnataka with India’s richest legislators and parliamentarians, most of whom have huge business interests. There is a definite financial investment to be made to win an election and the amount is in crores or tens of crores, depending on the constituency, candidate, and the state. Candidates willing to make that financial investment keep the returns in mind.
The lone defeat was the then Tamil Nadu Congress president EVKS Elangovan, who lost to AIADMK leader O Paneerselvam’s son P Raveendranath. Congress leaders candidly admit that there is a lukewarm response from some Karnataka cabinet ministers, and even some of the MLAs, for the call to contest the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, a few weeks ago, had publicly stated that his ministers must contest, if the party asks them to. He now seems settled into a comfortable ministership in the Siddaramiah cabinet. The Congress is hoping to get state cabinet minister HC Mahadevappa to contest the polls from here. He is clearly reluctant. This would be different had there been a realistic chance of making it to power at the Centre. The reality is that the Congress candidate is contesting with little hope of a change in Delhi. Even in Tamil Nadu, the dominant Congress ally, the DMK, is keen to have a say in the choice of candidates by the Congress. Which is why they are yet to firm up a seat-sharing arrangement. It’s a lesson that if a strong candidate like DK Suresh can withstand a BJP onslaught in Karnataka, a candidate who doesn’t work on the ground can lose even if there’s a sweep election for the party. As far as Karnataka is concerned, the BJP seems all focussed on an aggressive Hindutva push. The issues that it has picked up in the last few days – a Temple Bill, alleged pro-Pakistan slogans and a scathing political attack on the state government after the Rameshwaram cafe blast – clearly reveal the party’s strategy. Hindutva and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persona are its core selling points this time and there is lesser emphasis on Karnataka’s famous caste and sect arithmetic. The state leadership is keen to put up a fight and it is a prestige battle for the Congress president. It’s also a battle that could determine the road ahead for the state government, with conflicting power centres. In fact, Siddarmiah’s son Dr. Yatheendra publicly linked his father’s continuance as Chief Minister to the party’s showing in the parliamentary polls.
Because the Congress, in an alliance with the JD(S), gave the seat to its ally in 2019, in Mandya, after the death of actor-politician Ambareesh, his widow Sumalatha contested as an independent backed by the BJP. Even Mallikarjun Kharge, the present Congress president, lost his traditional stronghold of Gulbarga to the BJP in 2019. Other strong parliamentary faces like KH Muniyappa, a seven-time MP from Kolar, lost in 2019 and subsequently shifted to state politics, winning the assembly election in 2023. In fact, 2019 was a sweep for the DMK-Congress alliance, which won 38 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.
Which is why party strategists feel that prestige battles or one that revolves around political rivalry/survival, backed by strong money power or the caste vote could be crucial motivation and should be factored in choosing “winnable” candidates in states like Karnataka and Telangana.
Since then, Sumalatha has firmly stayed with the BJP.
