The Blue tsunami on Capitol Hill washed away many Republicans and changed the landscape, but it’s unlikely to sweep India’s existing woes with President Donald Trump into oblivion.
Things can change only if Democrats can muster enough Republican votes to counter Trump’s veto which he has already announced he plans to use frequently. A divided government could be worse for all concerned as Democrats lock horns with Trump and demand answers on war and peace. Gridlocks are a typical characteristic of such situations, eating up legislative time and littering the battleground. Sensing a friendly environment in Congressional corridors, quasi-official bodies and busybodies both may become hyperactive, trying to generate letters of condemnation against the Indian government from incoming members, especially those from the left. But such letters are generally performative and should be treated as such. A better balance between the executive and legislative branches will no doubt emerge, but Trump will still have the final word on foreign policy issues. His unpredictability and propensity to rule by executive orders are unlikely to diminish. He may want to punish those he still can, especially abroad. As they say, a wounded tiger is more dangerous. To bring prices down, the incoming Congress is expected to address the president’s tariff wars against the world, which may address Indian concerns but peripherally. But the ability of Congress to curb presidential trade authority is limited. It means rewriting major trade laws which even the optimists say is a bridge too far.
Because the Democrats are in power, especially because Delhi has put more faith in the Republicans in recent times, only to be shocked by the second Trump Administration, be it tariffs or Russian oil or immigration issues, it’s best not to expect dramatic changes just. Because of disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East, sweeping tariffs on imports have been one of the main reasons for a rise in prices in consumer products, while the Iran war pushed the cost of gas and diesel.
Much as policy makers in New Delhi would like to wish, hope, and read into the stunning outcome of the US midterm elections, the world according to Democrats may only differ on the margins while remaining the same in the centre.
