El Nino is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, bringing significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and increasing the associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
A very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many parts of the world. However, the strength of the event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in a particular country or region. Its effects vary by location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further, reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026. Its climate impacts are expected to continue well into 2027. The Nino 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the region, averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during May-July 2026 and reached 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal in July. For September-November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing a pronounced atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Nino.
“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, warning that rising sea surface temperatures and temperatures globally are putting the world in a “danger zone” of extreme weather.
