The global energy order is undergoing a sharp shift, with the US increasingly using its position as a major energy producer to influence fuel flows far beyond its borders. President Donald Trump’s threats to restrict American diesel exports have added to uncertainty in an already strained market, forcing governments, traders and businesses to reassess where the world’s fuel supplies will come from. As wars disrupt production and shipping routes, Washington’s push to prioritise domestic fuel availability is also raising questions about how much the US will continue to support global energy markets – and what that could mean for prices from Europe to Asia.
Trump’s proposed export restriction could therefore have an unusual effect: a policy designed to increase fuel availability in the US could reduce supplies elsewhere and intensify competition for diesel.
Petrol prices too have been rising. His administration is examining whether a full or partial restriction would be feasible. Europe is particularly exposed. The United States is facing its own fuel-price squeeze. US diesel inventories have also fallen to unusually low levels. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has warned that a blanket export ban could also force American refiners to cut production, potentially pushing up gasoline and jet-fuel prices.
Trump’s proposed export restriction could therefore have an unusual effect: a policy designed to increase fuel availability in the US could reduce supplies elsewhere and intensify competition for diesel. The cost of diesel has risen about 40 per cent since the start of the Iran war in February, according to the BBC . However, no blanket export ban has been imposed, and the White House has denied a report that it was preparing a 90-day ban. European diesel futures have more than doubled from their levels at the start of 2026, while diesel prices have reached records in several markets. In Australia, the price of diesel has risen by seven per cent to nearly $3 a litre, according to the federal government’s latest fuel data. There are 32 days of diesel in the nation’s fuel reserves, according to a report in nine.com.au . Average US diesel prices crossed $6 a gallon for the first time earlier this month, according to GasBuddy data cited by Reuters.
Diesel prices are at all-time high in the UK, according to motoring organisation RAC. The grim statistics emerged as Trump said on September 22 that he “very seriously” supported the idea of banning US diesel exports, arguing that American fuel should remain available for American consumers.
