India’s monsoon is currently weakening, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting below-normal rainfall across the country for at least the next two weeks, lasting until September 2. As of Saturday, the all-India rainfall deficit stood at 14% below the long-period average, and it is expected to increase further. This decline is attributed to the monsoon trough remaining anchored to the Himalayan foothills rather than progressing into central India.
On Monday, private forecaster Skymet Weather dramatically its revised seasonal forecast: monsoon rainfall is now expected at just 85% of LPA, down from its own April projection of 94%, with a 70% probability of drought.
Despite some weather systems developing, rainfall is expected to remain below normal across the country in both weeks of the forecast window, the agency said. “Skymet foresees a 70% chance of drought and expects the seasonal rainfall to be 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA),” the forecaster said.
Heavy to very heavy rain is more likely along the Himalayan belt and in parts of northeast and east India, but subdued conditions are expected to persist over Peninsular India for the coming week. The monsoon trough’s position is the immediate problem. The trough’s failure to dip southward into central India — where it typically drives the heaviest and most agriculturally significant rainfall during August — means the regions that most need rain are the least likely to receive it. Skymet warned that the remaining weeks of August would bring inequitable distribution across the country’s four homogeneous rainfall regions, with a strengthening El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole — which in a positive phase can partially offset El Niño’s suppressive effect on monsoon moisture, but is currently failing to do so — expected to deepen the deficit further in September.
A low-pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal off the West Bengal–Bangladesh coasts within 24 hours, and is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over Odisha and Chhattisgarh until August 26.
“This will reduce rainfall over the rest of the country as it will be centred only around the Himalayan belt and northeast India,” said Navdeep Dahiya, an independent weather expert, adding the trough is expected to stay in the foothills for at least a week.
