Before we address India’s challenges, it would be useful to understand the main features and implications of the geopolitical flux that the world is currently witnessing. Because of the geopolitical flux that is a harsh reality, that said, India faces profound challenges, both internal and external,.
At the recently concluded Kautilya Economic Conclave, external affairs minister S Jaishankar spoke about an “age of flux” but exuded confidence that the government managed to hold India in a sweet spot, which he conceded was not static but kept shifting.
The most important actor driving this, without a shadow of doubt, is the US, which under President Donald Trump, has embarked on a reordering of the international relations system as we know it after World War II. Three things about this are noteworthy. One, the US has concluded that the existing order strategically disadvantages it, carries an unacceptable price, and allows other major countries a free ride. Two, the changes underway in America’s foreign and security policy will likely outlast President Trump. Three, no major power can claim that it has been left untouched by US policy changes. The main strategic implication of this is that US foreign policy retrenchment has become both transactional and unpredictable. The second feature of the geopolitical flux, unsurprisingly, is China. China presents a conundrum. On the one hand, China is unquestionably America’s peer and while it is running behind on some metrics, it is catching up fast. On the other hand, China really runs the risk of getting old before it becomes rich. In addition, President Xi Jinping confronts political headwinds at home although given the level of opacity in China, the extent of discontent is in doubt. Xi Jinping has continued for way too long as President and can justify his long reign only with something dramatic like the reunification of Taiwan or demonstrable subordination of America by China in some way. The main strategic implication of this is that Beijing may become more assertive and conflictual. The third feature is the demise of multilateralism and other countries being left to their own devices. The dysfunctional UN Security Council, the irrelevance of the World Trade Organization and the near-total collapse of the alliance system (with NATO leading the way) has left countries, both big and small, scrambling for a response. The main strategic implication of this is that while the old order has clearly perished, a new one is yet to take its place. This interregnum may neither be transient nor necessarily peaceful. Dr Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and is currently dean/professor at OP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal.
Canada’s Mark Carney has spoken of a coalition of the “Middle Powers”, but it is becoming obvious that this is easier said than done.
