The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is expected to commence from September 19, with the all-India monsoon deficit currently standing at -15%, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, noting that the current monsoon was severely impacted by a strengthening El Nino, leaving several districts in the western, southern and northeastern part of the country in a rainfall deficit, which is unlikely to be bridged back.
Isolated scattered rains are also likely across Uttar Pradesh till September 18, it said. In its August 31 forecast for September, IMD said below normal rainfall (<91% of long period average (LPA)) was likely. The forecast came a fortnight after private weather forecaster Skymet Weather issued a revised forecast for the southwest monsoon season on August 17, saying monsoon rainfall was expected to be 85% of the long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought. In its initial forecast issued in April, Skymet had forecast the monsoon to be 94% of the LPA. In its April forecast, IMD said the monsoon was likely to be 92% below the LPA this year. However, in its June outlook, it revised this forecast downward — from 92% to 90% — and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD said in a statement on Monday, forecasting fairly widespread rains over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15-17; across Punjab, Haryana and Delhi on 16 and 17; isolated activity across west and east Rajasthan from September 15-17.
Earlier reporting noted: Weather tomorrow: IMD warns of rain, thunderstorms across several states; heavy rain alert for Delhi, Odisha, Gujarat The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab. Earlier reporting noted: NEW DELHI: Heavy rain is likely in several parts of the country on Tuesday, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Konkan and Goa, Gujarat region and Saurashtra and Kutch. East Rajasthan may also receive isolated heavy rain.
The all-India monsoon deficit touched -40% in June before widespread rains in July brought it down to -13% by the end of July. It was -14% at the end of August and stood at -15% overall, as of September 13. The deficit is largest in the south peninsula region (-28%), followed by east and northeast India (-25%). It is at -6% in central India and -10% in northwest India. Among the states in a deficit—and unlikely to make a recovery—included key agrarian states like Punjab (-40%), Haryana (-23%), Rajasthan (-25%), Bihar (-35%), Karnataka (-29%), Kerala (-27%), Telangana (-20%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%), Tamil Nadu (-26%), Arunachal Pradesh (-42%) and Meghalaya (-59%), data shows.
Earlier reporting noted: The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi and Punjab.
Monsoon Withdrawal Update for West Rajasthan
The monsoon is anticipated to retreat from west Rajasthan around September 19. This date is slightly later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17. In contrast, last year, the monsoon withdrawal began as early as September 14.
