This year’s El Nino is on track to be the strongest on record, threatening to unleash extreme weather across the globe and make 2027 the hottest recorded year by far.
It stands to make this year a contender for the hottest year on record, currently held by 2024, and make 2027 a near certainty for top spot, since most of the heat impact is felt the following year.
Scientists agree climate change increases El Nino’s impacts. There is less consensus on whether climate change itself triggers stronger El Ninos, though evidence for this is emerging. El Nino will add a temporary 0.3 degrees Celsius on top of the long-term global warming trend, resulting in a 2027 temperature of 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — compressing into a single year as much warming as would otherwise be expected by 2037, according to calculations by climate scientists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler. McPhaden cited evidence from the paleo-record — for example coral skeletons — instrument readings that stretch back to the 19th century, and climate modeling which suggest El Ninos may have increased in amplitude by about 10 percent over the past century.
Mike McPhaden, a senior scientist at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, had a similar estimate, telling AFP: “It’s not inconceivable that 2027 may top out at 1.7 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels” if model forecasts bear out.
