The much-publicised Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has understandably attracted attention in diplomatic and strategic circles. It is being presented by some as a significant new security alignment in the Middle East and even compared with a regional version of NATO. Because of this arrangement, for India, however, there is little reason to overreact or alter the fundamentals of its foreign policy.
But merely importing a principle associated with NATO does not, by itself, make this agreement strategically meaningful. The three countries do not share a common border, have different strategic calculations and more importantly, the agreement does not clearly define its purpose, its applicability or the circumstances in which the three countries would actually act together. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan already had a bilateral defence understanding, while Turkey has its own regional ambitions.
The agreement says that an armed attack against one will be regarded as an attack against all.
India’s strength in the Gulf is not a newly signed military pact. India should watch the agreement carefully, particularly its longer-term relationship with the US, Western countries and Iran. It is its economy, credibility, human capital, historical connections, strategic autonomy and the trust built over decades. The Mecca Pact may create a perception of a new regional alignment. But India must look beyond the perception.
But it should not change its foreign policy or public discourse according to Pakistan’s choices.
The fact that US President Donald Trump has appreciated the arrangement is significant. It indicates that Washington sees value in bringing Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey into a framework that serves wider American strategic interests. In the longer term, such an arrangement could provide the US with another instrument through which Pakistan can become useful in future regional contingencies.
