After pulling India back from a near 40% rainfall deficit at the end of June, the southwest monsoon is losing momentum again. The all-India rainfall deficit remained stuck at 12% as of August 13 despite widespread showers in the first half of August, and forecasts suggest rainfall could weaken further through the month.
Rainfed maize is vulnerable during tasselling, silking and grain filling; cotton faces risk from both dry spells and waterlogging. CEEW’s assessment of four decades of rainfall data shows 55% of India’s tehsils received over 10% higher southwest monsoon rainfall in the past decade compared with the 1982-2011 baseline, while 11% received over 10% less, concentrated across the Indo-Gangetic plains, the northeast and the Himalayan region.
Dr Vishwas Chitale, Fellow at the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said this year’s monsoon reflects a longer-term shift — the monsoon is becoming more erratic, not simply wetter or drier.
The sowing season has virtually ended. With little room left for additional planting, this year’s harvest will depend on yields, and on whether crops get adequate moisture through August and September. Agriculture ministry data show kharif crops were sown over an area about 2% lower than a year earlier as of August 14 — rice acreage down 3.7%, tur and maize by 4% each, cotton by 1% and sugarcane by 0.5%. The national rainfall deficit has barely moved in a fortnight — from 13% below the long period average (LPA) on July 31 to 12% by August 13 — even as many parts of the country received regular showers this month. In its July 31 long-range forecast, the IMD had projected below-normal rainfall for both August and September, estimating August rainfall at 94% of its long period average of 254.9 mm, with the first half of the month broadly normal before activity weakened later. Its August 13 extended-range forecast reinforces that outlook: near-normal rainfall from August 13-19, turning normal to below normal during August 20-26 as the monsoon trough shifts north again. IMD data show 40 of India’s top 50 rice-producing districts are running rainfall deficits — as are 21 of the top 25 soybean districts, 18 of the top 21 tur districts and 16 of the top 20 maize districts.
Critical Growth Phase for Kharif Crops Ahead
Soybean, maize, paddy, and other kharif crops are currently in crucial growth stages that will ultimately determine their yields. Experts indicate that the next two weeks are vital, as the impact of the uneven monsoon could significantly affect productivity levels.
